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        2030 Global Marine fuel development trend

        2023-10-01 00:00:00


        The world is bustling, all for profit to

             The world is bustling, all for profit to. The power of "Li" opened the era of ship transportation. When the "coal era" withdrew from the stage of history, Marine fuel oil began to play an important role, and promote the ship transportation into the heyday, especially in recent years, the market situation is not good, all kinds of new ships, large ships emerge in endlessly, labor cost growth, freight continues to fall, fuel cost becomes the key to the profit of shipowners. So, what role will fuel play in the global shipping trade in the future?

        Change and change 

                The ancients used the metaphor of "the moon is dizzy and the wind, the foundation and the rain" to predict the development direction of things through some signs. To predict the future is to better adapt to and control the future, and improve the ability to adapt to changes. Shipping industry, too, as an important part of the shipping industry operations, forthe future fuel development of natural indispensable, as Lloyd's classification (LR) global shipping business director Tom Boardley, the shipping industry is undergoing a shift, manage "today" growing operating costs, and meet the requirements of the environment cost benefit, requires ship operators to make the right "tomorrow". There is no doubt that fuel is one of the most critical elements of market operation at this stage, and fuel cost control will directly affect the profit margin. Various institutions around the world have also conducted a forecast analysis of the next 10 years and 20 years, among them, Lowe's has also released the "2030 Global Marine Fuel Development Trends" for the shipping industry. So, what is the report's prediction.What kind of analysis method is used?

                First, the whole analysis prediction is based on the four major ship types of container ship, bulk carrier, general cargo ship and oil tanker. Why did you choose these four major ship types? According to the report, the fuel consumption of the four major vessels accounts for about 70 percent of the total fuel consumption of the global shipping industry. 

                At the same time, the analysis and prediction also make three assumptions for the control of the shipping industry in 2030: first, all external control conditions are basically unchanged, called the status quo situation (Status Quo); the second is the control scope, called the global common situation (Global Common); third, the global "independent" in the control, each country has its own control rules, called the competitive country situation (competing nations). These three scenarios represent the different development scenarios that the world shipping industry may have in 2030, which may gradually change from the current commercialization to more global or more localized.

               Based on the above ship types and assumptions, the report evaluates the development potential of a variety of available fuels, both conventional and alternative fuels. Traditional fuels refer to Marine fossil fuels, and the representative fuels are Marine distillates(Marine diesel oil and Marine gasoline) and different components of residual oil, heavy fuel oil and low-sulfur heavy oil. Alternative energy source refers to liquefied natural gas, methanol, hydrogen energy, biological alternatives, etc. 

               The study concluded that future fuels must have four characteristics: they must be available to ships; they must be sufficiently cost-effective; they must be competitive enough against existing and upcoming energy technologies; and they must be able to meet current and future environmental requirements. So, what are the different characteristics of the future prospects of different fuels in the three different scenarios?

             Three patterns

              First of all, under the status quo model, assuming that there is no major change in trade, the economy shows steady growth, rapid control changes do not exist, and shipping will develop, but the degree is limited. Assuming that the 0.5% low-sulfur oil limit is still implemented in 2025, heavy fuel oil will still account for more than half of the total fuel share by 2030. For most fleets, especially in the oil transport industry, heavy oil is still considered the most cost-effective option. There will be a significant proportion of the fleet, mainly old ships, relying on Marine diesel and Marine gasoline to meet the ECA requirements. This may not be the best option, but for some ships, it is still the only technical option available. From 2020 to 2025, the proportion of low-sulfur heavy oil used will increase, and the proportion of alternative fuels will change significantly in 2030.

             LNG applications will gradually increase, starting with chemical vessels and refined oil vessels, followed by bulk carriers and general cargo carriers. In 2030, chemical ships and refined oil ships will account for 30 per cent. LNG will be more suitable for small ships due to fuel prices and storage costs. Although there will be some container ships with LNG tanks, the proportion in the entire fleet is small.

            Under the "global sharing" scenario, we assume a uniform requirement for global fuel sulfur content, based on this rule, is also the main reason for the continuous use of heavy oil fuels. Different from the status quo model, due to the price of low sulfur heavy oil, the proportion of high and low sulfur heavy oil will not be too large. On the contrary, more investment will be added to detergent equipment and other technologies. 

              Carbon emissions policies will be stricter, and the use of hydrogen energy will increase in non-conventional fuels by 2030Will account for 9%, with a significant increase in 2050 and a large share of all ship fuel. LNG and hydrogen replacement of traditional fuels will first appear in bulk carriers, chemical ships and refined oil wheels. In other words, a significant increase in international trade under the "global share" scenario could boost the use of LNG and hydrogen fuels. Under the "national competition" model, the report gives the smallest share of LNG applications, while in the traditional heavy oil, the report gives 60% data. Starting in 2025, Marine diesel and Marine gasoline will share less than the "status quo" model. Due to the characteristics of their respective control regulations, the uncertainty of control and the increasing barriers have added a strong color of protectionism. The application of LNG is not very clear. Under the mode of "national competition", it requires the stability of the control rules and an attractive price, so the traditional heavy oil has an advantage in the price. 

               Compared with the first two scenarios, the application of LNG in chemical vessels and refined oil wheels will show a strong growth, with a share of 15% by 2030. Other ship types will see similar trends, but in the tanker industry, the use of traditional heavy oil application share is very large. This suggests that the non-traditional fuel market share is driven by traditional fuel oil price and emissions legislation, rather than independent commodity growth forecasts and related transport demand. In general, although the market share of heavy oil has decreased, the total use is still increasing, not decreasing. In 2030, the demand forheavy oil will increase by 23% over 2010, which has no positive impact on controlling ship greenhouse gas emissions.

              New energy replacement

            According to the 2030 Global Marine Fuel Trends, nearly half or two -thirds of the tankers, bulk carriers and container ships will continue to use heavy oil until 2030, just as LR environmental consultant Dimitris Argyros The transition from relying on heavy oil to using alternative fuels will be a long one.

             What is the basis for drawing this conclusion? There are two things that we can see leopard. One is from the use rate of heavy oil, The study reported that, Heavy fuel oil usage remains high until 2030, In the "maintain present, form" scenario, About 47%, with a market share, In the "global shared" context, About 58% share, In the "national competition" scenario, About 66% share; Second, from the perspective of the share of alternative fuel used by each ship type, Chemical ships and refined ships may be the earliest types to use LNG fuel, In the "maintain present, form" situation, LNG accounts for about 31% of the ship's total fuel consumption. But for other ship types, the 11% LNG use prospect was not achieved in 2010. According to 2030, Global Marine Fuel Trends, global ship energy consumption is expected to double by 2030, with new fuels to grow faster than heavy oil. 

             In general, it will take many years for new ship fuels to replace existing heavy fuel oil, and it is not feasible to completely disrupt the composition of existing ship fuels in the next 16 years, and LR says heavy oil will remain an important part of ship fuel until 2030. Therefore, the proportion of heavy oil used in the future will not necessarily be reduced, nor is it reduced.

        2030 Global Marine fuel development trend
        The world is bustling, all for profit to
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